It’s about pirates

Aaron Hoffman lights up when asked about his MSc thesis topic. “It’s about pirates!” the American industrial ecology exclaims, smiling. More precisely, Hoffman will formalize a model that draws on system dynamics and agent-based modeling to reveal the interlinked security and sustainability aspects of modern-day maritime piracy.

Agent-based models seek to understand how interactions of key actors or “agents” lead to emergent system behavior. In Hoffman’s research, the agent is the “commercial vessel and its crew transiting through pirated areas.” The agents must analyze ‘tradeoffs between uses of lethal vs. non-lethal protection measures against piracy.’

There’s a range of responses to piracy threats, including rerouting, ‘slow steaming’ (sailing at slow speeds), deploying armed guards or technology-based protections, like aerosols, lasers, acoustics, or other means. Hoffman’s research analyzes the system-wide costs/benefits of agents employing these various defenses.

Hoffman hopes his thesis will also enable policy analysis and the

weighing of various interventions into the complex system of maritime piracy. “Best estimates of the cost of maritime piracy today to governments and corporations is around $8-12 billion per year, resulting in renewed public sector interest in the problem,” he says, adding that he’s already in touch with private and public sector stakeholders that have strong interest in the issue, including governments and private firms.

“I hope this project will extend beyond my MSc thesis,” he says. “From my initial conversations with stakeholders, I think there’s an opportunity to create a knowledge and risk management platform.” He’d like to continue working on the project as a PhD student in future. However, he’s also interested in moving the project along through his nascent consulting firm, Eureco.

The piracy issue may not seem like a natural topic for industrial ecologists, who are usually known for analyzing the energy/material flows of industrial processes and proposing sustainability improvements. However, as Hoffman’s thesis proposal explains, ships are responsible for a significant percentage of global carbon emissions, and responses to maritime piracy can include rerouting ships to spend several weeks on alternative courses. “Human and environmental costs are a big part of the story,” says Hoffman, who completed the first year of the Industrial Ecology programme and then took a “year off” to get an MBA.

The issue of piracy is complex, requiring the weighing of economic, environmental and social aspects. This type of “triple bottom line” is familiar to industrial ecologists, as is the willingness to tackle complex problems, which increasingly draws industrial ecologists to agent-based modeling as a methodology.