Opnieuw meer universitaire eerstejaars

In de loop der jaren trekken de universiteiten steeds meer eerstejaars. Tien jaar geleden begonnen er zo’n 35 duizend aan hun opleiding, nu zijn het er naar verwachting elfduizend meer.



Vooral buitenlandse studenten dragen nu bij aan de groei, meldt de universiteitenvereniging VSNU. Er komen dit jaar zevenduizend buitenlandse studenten naar Nederland, een stijging van 38 procent ten opzichte van vorig jaar. “Dit toont aan dat de Nederlandse universiteiten in het buitenland hoog staan aangeschreven”, aldus voorzitter Sijbolt Noorda. “En dat is gunstig in een tijd van toenemende internationale concurrentie.”



De universiteiten houden wel een slag om de arm, omdat het nog maar om vooraanmeldingen gaat. De trend is duidelijk, maar studenten zouden alsnog kunnen besluiten een andere opleiding te gaan volgen of een jaar later te gaan studeren. Inschrijven is mogelijk tot 1 oktober.



Die slag om de arm is verstandig, want het kan vreemd lopen met vooraanmeldingscijfers. Zo blijkt uit andere bronnen dat de Vrije Universiteit 36 procent zou stijgen in de vooraanmeldingen, maar daar is een verklaring voor: schakelaars werden daar voorheen als masterstudenten ingeschreven en staan sinds dit jaar genoteerd als bachelorstudenten. In de praktijk verandert er dus minder dan gedacht. Het is afwachten hoeveel invloed dit soort kwesties nog heeft op het eindtotaal.



Er zijn wel enkele trends zichtbaar. De sectoren techniek (17 procent extra), natuur (12 procent) en economie (11 procent) groeien het hardst. Psychologie blijft de meest populaire bacheloropleiding met zo’n vierduizend eerstejaars. De belangstelling voor deeltijdopleidingen neemt af van drieduizend aanmeldingen vorig jaar naar 2.100 nu.

Name: Jeroen Pruyn (31)
Nationality: Dutch
Supervisor: Professor Ubald Nienhuis (faculty of Mechanical,
Maritime and Materials Engineering)
Subject: Modeling the shipbuilding industry and freight transport
Thesis defense: In two years

“Dutch shipyards are active all over the world. China, Japan and Korea are now important areas. But chances are that Vietnam and India will become more important manufacturers, especially of bulk carriers. So where in the world should Dutch shipyards invest? This is one of the questions I would like to answer with my PhD research. For this I am developing a shipbuilding and freight transport model that takes into account many variables, such as freight price and trade routes.

Before I started my research on this topic, at the end of 2006, I had already been working at the TU for a few years as researcher. During that time I developed a maritime business game for students. I wanted this game or model to become more holistic, which is one of the reasons I started my PhD project.
I also understood that the current freight and shipbuilding hype was a bubble that would burst. Its roots are found in another bubble, that of the dotcom, which burst in 2000. In a reaction to that the American government lowered interest rates to stimulate consumption. This led to the mortgage bubble and, through the cheap money available, to a worldwide increase in consumption, freight transport and freight rates. This sparked investors to keep on ordering new ships from shipyards. Between 2006 and 2008 the number of orders ran sky high.

Many of the new investors had no experience in shipbuilding and freight transport; they were buying for speculation. It was a total frenzy. Investors thought that the business was safe because they only saw steeply rising graphs of freight transport turnover. They didn’t realize that the increase in turnover was, at a certain point, mainly caused by an increase in the oil price, which greatly reduced profits.

For shipping, the crisis is just starting. The number of ships that are now in the order books equals half the number of ships that are currently sailing. This means that over the next fifteen to twenty years we will have a huge overcapacity, which will put further pressure on the freight transport prices.Merchants and investors who have expensive ships will go bankrupt. And in the coming years a lot of old ships will be dismantled.
After I have finished my PhD research, I hope I can head my own shipbuilding industry research group at TU Delft on this combination of engineering and economics. Shipyards used to be more interested in people with Bachelor’s degrees. But that is changing now. The industry is becoming more and more interested in scientific research, creating room for not only Master’s but also PhD positions.”