Holland’s next Prime Minister?

The Dutch will vote for a new national government on November 22, but will these elections really change Holland’s political landscape? Delta’s English Page offers a who’s who and what’s what ahead of the upcoming general election.

A feisty live television debate two weeks ago between the two men most likely to become Holland’s next prime minister set the tone for the circus that is the runner-up to next week’s national general election. Switch on any TV channel this week and you’ll not only find the various party leaders on the talk shows, but also on virtually any other show, as they try almost anything to win a few more votes.

According to recent media reports, about 30 percent of Dutch voters are still undecided as to what party they’ll vote for, so theoretically even the smallest parties still have a fighting chance. But despite the fact that a mighty 21 political parties will contend the elections, the two party leaders whose debate kicked-off the election frenzy are getting most of the spotlight: current Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende, and the main opposition leader, Wouter Bos.

Balkenende is leader of the center-right CDA (Christian Democrats). Bos, meanwhile, is leader of the center-left, social-democratic PvdA (Labor Party). Both these parties have long histories in Dutch government: the PvdA supplied the Prime Minister from 1989 until 2002, while the CDA has been in government uninterrupted from 1980 until 1994, with Balkenende serving as Prime Minister since 2002.

Other Dutch politicians currently enjoying a fair share of this election’s political spotlight are Jan Marijnissen, the SP (Socialist Party) leader, Mark Rutte, the VVD (conservative party) leader, and Femke Halsema, leader of GroenLinks (Green Party).
Coalitions

In the Dutch political system, the national Parliament consists of two Chambers: the Second Chamber (or Lower House), and the Senate (or Upper House). The Second Chamber supervises the government and has the right to introduce new law proposals and change law proposals submitted by the government, ask questions and initiate inquiries. The Senate, meanwhile, approves or rejects law proposals.

The public directly elects members of the Second Chamber, whereas the provincial government councils vote for members of the Senate. After the general election, the 150 Second Chamber seats are allocated to the various political parties according to number of votes each particular party received. The entire country is considered one constituency, which means that if for instance 20 percent of the Dutch people voted for the Labor Party, that party would receive 20 percent of the Second Chamber seats.

Usually, the party receiving the most general election votes provides the Prime Minister and gets the first shot at forming a governing coalition. Once the election results are tallied, the prospective Prime Minister begins negotiating with the other parties to form a coalition. This coalition needs to have the backing of at least 50 percent of the Second Chamber’s MPs.

Because there are so many political parties in the Netherlands, Dutch government coalitions are always comprised of two or more parties, as one single party never has an overall majority. In recent elections, Dutch voters have tended to not only base their votes on their party’s ideologies and leader, but also on the likelihood of a certain resulting coalition, and this can make forming coalitions quite difficult and complex.

For instance, in the last general election in 2003, the CDA and PvdA received the most votes, but their respective leaders, Balkenende and Bos, decided they couldn’t form a coalition government together, because their political ideologies were too far apart. Balkenende therefore then formed a coalition with the conservative VVD party, and D66, an unpopular center-left party that received only 4 percent of the votes.

This 3-party coalition recently fell apart after D66 withdrew its support for the coalition. Since then, the CDA and VVD continued to run the country in a minority government.
Immigration

The Balkenende-led government thoroughly reformed the Dutch social security system, cutting unemployment and disability benefits, for instance. As Holland traditionally had a strong social security system, these reforms led to social unrest. And the brutal murder of filmmaker Theo Van Gogh in 2004 by a Muslim extremist presented the government with another tough patch: problems relating to immigration and multiculturalism weakened Balkenende’s government considerably.

According to recent polls, the CDA are however likely to remain the largest party, with the PvdA remaining in second position. The VVD party continues to lose popularity and is now in fourth position, having been overtaken by the SP (Socialist Party).

As the polls stand now, predicting which parties will form Holland’s next government remains extremely difficult. Even if the CDA and PvdA again become the two largest parties, it’s highly unlikely they’ll agree to form a coalition government. Yet, another CDA-VVD coalition government doesn’t seem likely either, as collectively they probably won’t receive enough votes. The same goes for a center-left coalition of the PvdA and the two left-wing parties, SP and GroenLinks.

Whatever happens, there should be at least some changes in Dutch politics. But whether those changes will be for good or bad will depend on the willingness of all the parties to work together and compromise.

A feisty live television debate two weeks ago between the two men most likely to become Holland’s next prime minister set the tone for the circus that is the runner-up to next week’s national general election. Switch on any TV channel this week and you’ll not only find the various party leaders on the talk shows, but also on virtually any other show, as they try almost anything to win a few more votes.

According to recent media reports, about 30 percent of Dutch voters are still undecided as to what party they’ll vote for, so theoretically even the smallest parties still have a fighting chance. But despite the fact that a mighty 21 political parties will contend the elections, the two party leaders whose debate kicked-off the election frenzy are getting most of the spotlight: current Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende, and the main opposition leader, Wouter Bos.

Balkenende is leader of the center-right CDA (Christian Democrats). Bos, meanwhile, is leader of the center-left, social-democratic PvdA (Labor Party). Both these parties have long histories in Dutch government: the PvdA supplied the Prime Minister from 1989 until 2002, while the CDA has been in government uninterrupted from 1980 until 1994, with Balkenende serving as Prime Minister since 2002.

Other Dutch politicians currently enjoying a fair share of this election’s political spotlight are Jan Marijnissen, the SP (Socialist Party) leader, Mark Rutte, the VVD (conservative party) leader, and Femke Halsema, leader of GroenLinks (Green Party).
Coalitions

In the Dutch political system, the national Parliament consists of two Chambers: the Second Chamber (or Lower House), and the Senate (or Upper House). The Second Chamber supervises the government and has the right to introduce new law proposals and change law proposals submitted by the government, ask questions and initiate inquiries. The Senate, meanwhile, approves or rejects law proposals.

The public directly elects members of the Second Chamber, whereas the provincial government councils vote for members of the Senate. After the general election, the 150 Second Chamber seats are allocated to the various political parties according to number of votes each particular party received. The entire country is considered one constituency, which means that if for instance 20 percent of the Dutch people voted for the Labor Party, that party would receive 20 percent of the Second Chamber seats.

Usually, the party receiving the most general election votes provides the Prime Minister and gets the first shot at forming a governing coalition. Once the election results are tallied, the prospective Prime Minister begins negotiating with the other parties to form a coalition. This coalition needs to have the backing of at least 50 percent of the Second Chamber’s MPs.

Because there are so many political parties in the Netherlands, Dutch government coalitions are always comprised of two or more parties, as one single party never has an overall majority. In recent elections, Dutch voters have tended to not only base their votes on their party’s ideologies and leader, but also on the likelihood of a certain resulting coalition, and this can make forming coalitions quite difficult and complex.

For instance, in the last general election in 2003, the CDA and PvdA received the most votes, but their respective leaders, Balkenende and Bos, decided they couldn’t form a coalition government together, because their political ideologies were too far apart. Balkenende therefore then formed a coalition with the conservative VVD party, and D66, an unpopular center-left party that received only 4 percent of the votes.

This 3-party coalition recently fell apart after D66 withdrew its support for the coalition. Since then, the CDA and VVD continued to run the country in a minority government.
Immigration

The Balkenende-led government thoroughly reformed the Dutch social security system, cutting unemployment and disability benefits, for instance. As Holland traditionally had a strong social security system, these reforms led to social unrest. And the brutal murder of filmmaker Theo Van Gogh in 2004 by a Muslim extremist presented the government with another tough patch: problems relating to immigration and multiculturalism weakened Balkenende’s government considerably.

According to recent polls, the CDA are however likely to remain the largest party, with the PvdA remaining in second position. The VVD party continues to lose popularity and is now in fourth position, having been overtaken by the SP (Socialist Party).

As the polls stand now, predicting which parties will form Holland’s next government remains extremely difficult. Even if the CDA and PvdA again become the two largest parties, it’s highly unlikely they’ll agree to form a coalition government. Yet, another CDA-VVD coalition government doesn’t seem likely either, as collectively they probably won’t receive enough votes. The same goes for a center-left coalition of the PvdA and the two left-wing parties, SP and GroenLinks.

Whatever happens, there should be at least some changes in Dutch politics. But whether those changes will be for good or bad will depend on the willingness of all the parties to work together and compromise.