Mobility represents freedom and is an economic necessity, but all that travelling comes at a cost to the environment and our living environment. TU Delft researchers presented four scenarios for 2050 at the 183rd Dies Natalis. “It’s a wicked problem,” says Professor Deborah Nas.
Deborah Nas shares the complexity of mobility at the 183rd Dies Natalis. (Photo: Roy Borghouts)
How will we move around cities in 2050? Will we use one of the many electric shared pods flooding city centres? Will we walk or cycle to the nearest public transport hub that offers seamless connections? Will the city be greener, with walking and cycling as our primary modes of transport? Or will we rely on a patchwork of independent public transport operators and private cars? The choices we make today determine our future, TU Delft researchers say.
During TU Delft’s 183rd Dies Natalis, Professors Deborah Nas (Industrial Design Engineering) and Oded Cats (Civil Engineering and Geosciences) whisked the audience through four possible scenarios. “These are not end goals,” Cats emphasised, “but tools to help stakeholders in government, business, and academia view mobility from a long-term perspective.”
Nas led the Vision Team Mobility, comprising 18 researchers – or ‘mobilisers’ – from six faculties. There are no easy choices. While increased mobility fosters connectivity, inclusion, and cultural exchange, it also has negative impacts on public spaces and CO2 emissions.
Given that developing mobility infrastructure takes years – just think about the tram line on campus – a long-term vision is essential. “The scenarios can serve as a compass to navigate the ‘wicked problem’ of mobility,” said Nas.
Four Scenarios
The four scenarios developed by the ‘mobilisers’ hinge on two factors: the extent of government intervention and society’s willingness to change.
- Low government intervention and low willingness to change results in a patchwork of mobility solutions, or ‘business as usual’. By 2050, cities will become gridlocked, with mobility service providers that don’t cooperate. Public transport is unreliable, especially in rural areas, making people to depend on cars instead. Environmental concerns take a back seat.
- Strong government intervention, low willingness to change leads to a ‘Sustainable Slowdown’ prioritising nature conservation, well-being, and social equality. Spatial planning revolves around smaller cities with local amenities, reducing the demand for mobility. Walking and cycling become the primary modes of transport, supplemented by subsidised public transport for longer distances.
- Low government intervention, high willingness to change, dubbed the ‘Innovation Fast Track’, puts businesses in the driver’s seat. Innovation thrives, and start-ups flourish. However, commercial public transport serves the most profitable routes, neglecting less populated areas. City centres offer multiple mobility options but become congested.
- High government intervention, high willingness to change. This scenario, called ‘Hyperconnected Systems’, uses technological innovation to address societal challenges. Governments invest in sustainable infrastructure, efficient transport systems, and advanced traffic management. Core values include responsible business practices, sustainability, and well-being.
Honorary Doctorates
The selection of honorary doctorates reflects a university’s values. This year, two American transport researchers were honoured: Alexandre Bayen, who explores making traffic flows more sustainable, and Susan Handy, who critiques the car’s dominant role in mobility.
Professor Bart van Arem (Transport Modelling, Civil Engineering and Geosciences) nominated Alexandre Bayen, a Professor of Engineering at the University of California, Berkeley. Van Arem highlighted Bayen’s research demonstrating how a small proportion of self-driving cars can positively affect overall traffic flow by reducing braking and accelerating, making traffic smoother and more fuel-efficient. Bayen said he sees the honorary doctorate as a boost to the long-standing collaboration between the two institutions.
Susan Handy, Professor of Environmental Science and Policy at the University of California, Davis, makes no secret of her transport preferences. When TU Delft offered to have a taxi fetch her from her hotel, she chose to cycle instead. Professor Bert van Wee (Transport Policy at the Faculty of Technology, Policy, and Management) nominated Susan Handy, citing her influence beyond academic publications. Handy is a prominent voice in public debates, and her book Shifting Gears critiques car dependency while promoting more sustainable mobility options. She too sees the honorary doctorate as a way to strengthen ties between TU Delft and UC Davis.
Ding dong
The introductory voice that connected the presentations at the Dies sounded strangely familiar. It was the voice of the Dutch Railways (NS) that greets passengers in trains with “Dear travellers”. The audience was surprised when a woman with a microphone appeared on stage while the announcements continued. It was Karin van As, the voice of NS since 2021, in person introducing Tim van der Hagen, who delivered what later appeared to be his final Dies speech as Rector Magnificus.
‘Safer, more sustainable, and more diverse’
Van der Hagen referred to geopolitical tensions and translated them into three guiding principles for research: strategic autonomy, responsibility, and academic values.
Strategic autonomy: Van der Hagen called for strengthening resilience and reducing international dependency. According to think tanks, this requires research into critical materials, AI, knowledge security, robotics, quantum internet, and battery technologies. TU Delft is engaged in all these fields. But the Government’s plans to cut research funding is in stark contrast with the urgency of the situation, said Van der Hagen.
Responsibility: Researchers must consider the potential misuse of their work. Responsible innovation means incorporating ethics to ensure that ‘what is intended for good cannot be used for harm’.
Academic values: Van der Hagen emphasised the importance of open idea exchange despite societal polarisation. “Students and staff must feel safe to express themselves,” he said.
Last March, the Inspectorate of Education reported that many people did not feel safe, making social safety one of the most discussed topics on campus. Van der Hagen pledged his ‘undivided attention’ to the issue and in his final year as Rector Magnificus is working to make TU Delft safer, more sustainable, and more diverse.
- Watch the Dies Natalis on YouTube
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